Key trends in e-commerce – “Quo Vadis E-commerce 2024” report

E-commerce, despite changing market dynamics and concerns about its growth, is developing all the time. New technologies and solutions are emerging, consumers are changing their shopping habits, etc. So what will e-commerce look like in the coming years? The “Quo Vadis E-commerce 2024” report brings answers to this question. Prepared by Cushman & Wakefield, the publication highlights such trends as cross-border e-commerce, re-commerce and the development of smart logistics, among others.
E-commerce in numbers – Poland is the leader in CEE
Despite pessimistic forecasts and declining dynamics, e-commerce continues to grow. Also in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where, it is worth noting, Poland generates more than half of the turnover (54%). And CEE alone accounts for 12% of European turnover, with the largest contribution, as much as 75%, coming from the British, German and French markets.
The share of European e-commerce in the global total was 8% in 2024 and, after declines due to the end of the pandemic, its value will exceed the $600 billion barrier this year. Clothing and electronics will remain the most frequently purchased product categories online.
In Poland, the value of the e-commerce market increased by 12% in 2023 compared to the previous year, reaching PLN 131 billion (Strategy& data). According to forecasts, it will reach PLN 192 billion by 2028. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by industries such as apparel, consumer electronics and the very fast-growing e-grocery.
Confirmation of the continuous development of e-commerce in our country is the fact that Poland has become the leader in Europe in terms of the number of parcel lockers. At the end of 2023 there were almost 40,000 such devices in our country, and by the middle of 2024 this number had risen to 46,000. Product delivery to a parcel locker is the most popular delivery method in Poland, with more than 82% of online shoppers choosing it.
Chinese dominance in e-commerce
The world’s e-commerce leader is China, which generates more than half of global online sales – accounting for more than $3.2 trillion in 2023. China’s dominance in e-commerce is due to its ability to rapidly scale innovative business models, such as ultra fast fashion, and aggressive international expansion.
Chinese sales platforms such as SHEIN and Temu are reversing the supply chain, linking factories directly to sales platforms, thereby abandoning middlemen. Thanks to advanced analytics and trend-tracking algorithms, SHEIN and Temu can very quickly bring to market products that are actually in demand and that are likely to sell the most units. This model minimizes overproduction and increases operational efficiency.
SHEIN reported sales of $60 billion in 2023, with the company’s market value rising to $100 billion. The increasing presence of Chinese companies in the European market (including Poland), puts local companies in a position to adapt to new competitive standards. At the same time, cooperation with Chinese companies opens up new opportunities, such as technology transfer and access to advanced logistics solutions.
The most important trends in e-commerce
Cross-border e-commerce. Cross-border sales are playing an increasingly important role in global e-commerce. In 2023, the value of the European cross-border market reached €237 billion, a 32% year-on-year increase. Forecasts predict that by 2028 the global value of this market could exceed €3.1 trillion, and as much as 33% of all e-commerce transactions will be cross-border.
In Europe, cross-border e-commerce is most popular in Germany and the UK, where local consumers are eager to take advantage of foreign suppliers’ offers. Despite the dynamic growth of e-commerce, Poland has a lot of work to do to catch up when it comes to cross-border sales. Currently, only 5% of Polish companies sell their products abroad, giving us one of the last places in the EU. And cross-border e-commerce offers businesses huge opportunities for growth and revenue diversification.
However, to succeed in cross-border sales, investment in technology that integrates sales platforms with local payment methods or systems for consistent product information management, such as Akeneo PIM, is necessary. Providing customer service in the local language and the availability of different delivery options are also key.
Re-commerce. The second life of products is becoming an important part of commerce due to the increasing environmental awareness of the public (and Generation Z and millenials in particular), as well as economic issues. Re-commerce is growing rapidly, with a global value of $275 billion in 2028, an increase of 58% compared to 2022. The second life of products is also gaining popularity in Europe – in Poland, the second-hand clothing market reached $6 billion in 2023.
Despite rapid growth, re-commerce faces major logistical challenges, as well as the need to educate consumers. Companies need to invest in solutions for efficient returns handling or refurbishment processes. Poland, with its developing warehouse infrastructure and growing environmental awareness among consumers, has a chance to become one of the re-commerce leaders in Central and Eastern Europe.
Marketplace as a favorite shopping destination. Platforms such as Allegro, Amazon and Temu are gaining popularity. It is estimated that by 2027 marketplaces will account for 60% of global online sales – identical results are expected to be achieved by online platforms in Poland. The market leader in our country, Allegro, recorded a 15% increase in turnover in 2023, reaching a gross sales value of PLN 63 billion.
Consumers value marketplaces for their convenience, wide selection of products and competitive prices. They also find fast delivery or flexible payment options like “buy now, pay later” attractive. For sellers, marketplaces offer a number of advantages, such as easy access to a large customer base, a ready-to-use technology infrastructure that eliminates the need to invest in their own online stores, or analytical tools to support sales and marketing strategy.
Key to their further development will be investing in new technologies, such as AI and big data, which will enable better personalization of offers and streamlined logistics processes.
Smart logistics in the smart city. Last-mile logistics solutions are becoming increasingly important, especially with the rise of e-commerce. Microhubs, cargo bikes and autonomous vehicles are becoming key elements of modern city logistics. In the cities of the future, efficient management of last-mile deliveries is becoming a key challenge and an opportunity to improve the quality of life of residents and reduce CO2 emissions.
Poland is becoming a leader in Europe in the development of infrastructure to support smart logistics. As mentioned, we have the largest network of parcel lockers on the continent. Most of them are powered by renewable energy, and companies such as InPost are introducing innovative solutions that reduce CO2 emissions and shorten delivery times.