Trends in the retail space market – Cushman & Wakefield report

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s ‘Trends Radar 2026’ report, economic stabilisation will allow the Polish retail industry to be more bold in introducing structural changes, including those affecting retail outlets. Modern technologies and a well-thought-out ESG strategy will help maintain profitability and prepare for changes in consumer preferences. In the near future, we can also expect the dominance of retail parks, the challenges of the Silver Economy and the need to optimize operating costs.

“The retail industry must move from a reactive to a proactive phase, especially in the areas of technology and ESG, in order to maintain margins amid rising labour costs. The market will be dominated by those companies that are quickest to implement automation and adapt their retail formats to the local needs of modern consumers,” comments Anna Schabikowska, Marketing Director at Exorigo-Upos.

Prospects for growth in the Polish economy and their impact on consumers

After years of turbulence, the Polish economy should stabilize – projected GDP growth of 3.2%-3.5% and a decline in inflation will create the foundations for investment planning. Disinflation will be supported by stable prices for energy, food and services, which will relieve consumers of the pressure of rising living costs and allow them to be more inclined to spend on non-essential goods.

What is the current state of the retail space market in Poland?

Poland is emerging as a European leader in terms of retail parks being commissioned. The area of such facilities currently under construction is the largest in the history of our country. The dominance of this format results from its flexibility, lower operating costs and adaptation to the needs of consumers looking for quick and convenient shopping close to home.

Research confirms that the most important factors determining the choice of shopping location are easy access by car (50% of responses) and living close to such a facility (48%). This justifies the record investment pipeline in the retail park sector, which perfectly meets the need for local shopping.

In 2026, traditional shopping centres will account for only 10-15% of new supply, confirming the shift in investment towards smaller, local formats. It is worth noting here that although some older shopping centres may be closed down, the scale of this phenomenon will remain marginal and will not constitute a lasting trend. However, in the face of growing competition, it is necessary to modernise many such facilities in order to maintain their attractiveness.

A reduction in new supply can be expected from 2027, when the market becomes saturated with retail parks in smaller towns. The focus of development activity will then shift towards modernisation and repurposing. Those facilities that will continue to be used for retail will have to offer events that attract customers through unique experiences that cannot be found in e-commerce.

Increase in service charges will force investments

Forecasts indicate that service charges (covering costs related to facility maintenance and operational services) will increase by an average of 4% in 2026. This increase is driven by several factors:

• Higher minimum wage: another 3% increase in January 2026 will directly translate into higher security, cleaning and maintenance costs.
• Local taxes and fees: a projected increase in property tax of approximately 4.5% in 2026.
• Energy costs: although many managers have unfrozen rates earlier and secured energy purchases, the projected lack of government subsidies in 2026 will make effective utility management extremely important.

In response to these challenges, property owners will implement cost-cutting strategies by investing in photovoltaics and technologies that reduce utility consumption. Artificial intelligence-based solutions will be increasingly implemented, such as self-cleaning robots, intelligent HVAC systems that adjust temperature in real time, and motion sensors that control lighting to reduce electricity bills.

Investment priorities and automation

In 2026, capital expenditure will be heavily focused on projects that deliver measurable operational savings and support ESG objectives. Shopping centre owners are becoming more open to spending, provided there is a quick return on investment – preferably within one year.

A key strategic change will be to reduce the human factor where processes can be automated. Faced with low unemployment (3.2% according to Eurostat) and an increase in the minimum wage, retailers must look for ways to automate some of the tasks assigned to employees. One such task could be the implementation of electronic shelf labels (ESL) in stores. The implementation of ESL brings several measurable benefits, including:

• helps optimise working time – employees can focus on customer service instead of changing labels and performing similar routine operational tasks;
• eliminates pricing errors – consistency between shelf prices and cash register prices builds trust;
• enables dynamic margin management – allows for immediate response to market changes or promotions without the need to manually replace paper labels.

In an era of competition to optimize employee working time and achieve the best possible margins, ESL systems can become the foundation of a modern point of sale, while supporting an omnichannel strategy through consistency of prices and price information across all channels.

The integration of online and offline systems will also be crucial. Payment automation, the implementation of self-check outs and loyalty systems are all part of the market trend towards cost optimization while improving customer service quality.

Why has ESG become a requirement for maintaining the value of commercial assets?

Sustainable development is no longer an optional extra, but has become a cornerstone of business strategy. Retail spaces consume 43% more primary energy than office buildings. Improving energy efficiency is therefore a key long-term challenge for the retail sector. The lack of a decarbonisation strategy or non-compliance with standards such as CRREM may result in a reduction in the market value of a property.

What is more, investors and banks are increasingly making access to financing conditional on a property having specific results on its Energy Performance Certificate and certificates such as BREEAM or LEED. And pro-environmental measures also have a purely economic aspect. Investments in heat pumps, water-saving systems and renewable energy sources not only reduce CO2 emissions, but also significantly reduce dependence on fluctuations in utility prices, which is crucial for the stability of service charges paid by tenants.

How will demographic changes affect the future of trade and customer preferences?

They will have a significant impact – demographics is a megatrend that will begin to drastically change the landscape of trade in Poland from 2026 onwards. Official forecasts by the Central Statistical Office indicate that by 2060, Poland’s population may decrease to 30 million, and the share of people aged 65+ will increase to about 36%. However, an ageing population is not only a challenge but also an opportunity for the retail industry.

People aged 40 to 60 are becoming an increasingly important group, with more time and higher incomes due to their longer working lives. The next two decades will be an era of demand for ‘care and convenience’. Consumers will prefer retail formats close to home and facilities offering a wide range of services in one place, which will save time.

Summary and key conclusions

The retail sector faces a number of challenges in 2026, but also specific opportunities resulting from economic stabilisation.

• Supply: Poland remains the European leader in the construction of retail parks, and 2026 will see a continued high level of development.
• Costs: Rent indexation of approximately 4% and an increase in service charges of approximately 4% are forcing managers and tenants to seek savings through automation and AI.
• Efficiency: ESG is becoming an important factor in property valuation. Investments in green energy and decarbonisation protect assets from depreciation.
• Consumer: the 60+ consumer is becoming a key group, and an ageing population and the era of ‘care and convenience’ demand is promoting locality and proximity.
• Optimisation: industries such as electronics are downsizing their premises, while fashion and services are looking for larger spaces.

The full Cushman & Wakefield ‘Trends Radar 2026’ report can be downloaded here.

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