Retail industry outlook for 2026 and beyond according to Deloitte report

According to Deloitte’s ‘2026 Retail Industry Global Outlook’ report, retailers are optimistic about the near future – 96% forecast revenue growth for the industry and 81% forecast margin growth. However, they must account for changes in consumer behaviour, with consumers seeking value more than ever. Four in ten customers are bargain hunters or price-sensitive, and this is not only due to inflation – nearly 70% of retailers see this as a permanent market change. However, other factors, such as quality of service, are also important. To meet customer expectations and gain a competitive advantage, industry leaders are therefore focusing on efficiency and innovation – primarily AI.

– Our experience shows that the coming year will be a test of strategic adaptability. Success will come to retailers who reinforce the traditional foundations of commerce – customer focus and financial discipline – with the potential of AI and precise data analytics. The key to shaping the new era of retail is to focus on what is measurable and controllable, while providing customers with unique added value – forecasts Anna Schabikowska, Marketing Director at Exorigo-Upos.

What do today’s value-seeking consumers expect?

According to a Deloitte report, even affluent consumers are changing their shopping behavior and carefully assessing whether a product offers real value. Currently, four out of ten Americans are extremely conscious about the purchasing process and look for bargains. Behaviours such as choosing cheaper products, shopping in channels offering more favourable prices, or trading convenience for greater savings are a ‘structural change’ rather than a temporary reaction to inflation.

However, to succeed, retailers must focus on more than just offering low prices. As much as 40% of consumers’ perception of brand value is based on non-price factors. Purchasing decisions are influenced by factors such as product quality, customer service, loyalty programmes, and even employee attitude. Providing additional benefits that make their offering more attractive will give retailers a competitive edge.

In response to changing consumer shopping habits, 70% of retailers surveyed by Deloitte plan to expand their product range at lower price points. This was followed closely by the development of private labels. The next on the list were:

• improving the omnichannel experience (46%);
• strengthening loyalty programmes (36%);
• personalised recommendations based on artificial intelligence (35%).

Artificial intelligence in commerce: from experiments to implementations

Artificial intelligence in commerce is rapidly moving from the experimental phase to practical implementations. Most retailers already use AI in key processes or plan to do so soon. Moreover, 68% of respondents expect to implement agentic artificial intelligence in key operational activities within their companies within the next 12 or 24 months.

ChatGPT and competing solutions generate up to 15-20% of traffic to some e-shops, and by 2030 they could handle up to a quarter of global online sales. Nine out of ten retail managers predict that by 2026, AI will replace search engines as the primary tool for finding products, and half of them believe that the multi-step shopping journey will be replaced by a single interaction with an AI agent.

However, this may weaken customer loyalty to the brand. 81% of retailers believe that by 2027, generative artificial intelligence will weaken customer loyalty to brands – they will focus on the best price and fit, rather than the brand. Retailers will need to ensure that their products are visible to AI algorithms. Product and pricing data should be accurate and readable by AI so that the offer is not overlooked. Companies that quickly integrate generative AI into their processes will be successful. Already, 44% of respondents report that legacy IT systems are hindering innovation, underscoring the need for investment in modern infrastructure and team training. Whoever does this first will gain an advantage over the competition.

How is AI revolutionising marketing and customer experience?

Artificial intelligence gives marketers tools for hyper-personalisation, content automation and customer data analysis. As a result, they can precisely and dynamically tailor their offerings to specific audiences. 67% of retailers plan to implement AI-based personalisation within a year, which will translate into a better shopping experience, better-targeted campaigns and loyalty programmes that respond to customer behaviour.

Retailers are so convinced of the effectiveness of AI tools that as many as 94% of them expect to increase the number of marketing activities carried out in-house. The importance of proprietary advertising networks (Retail Media Networks) is also set to grow – 88% of respondents consider them key to increasing revenue, and 79% plan to sell advertising there to companies with a different product range.

As artificial intelligence makes creative technologies more accessible, standing out in a crowded marketplace will likely depend on how effectively retailers combine creativity, data, and AI-driven insights to deliver unique brand experiences to customers.

Supply chain transformation in uncertain times

As many as 95% of retailers expect operating costs to rise in 2026 due to global trade regulations. However, they are beginning to focus on supply chain transformation rather than cost cutting. Nearly two-thirds of companies (66%) plan to reduce reliance on expensive imports by moving production closer to their markets (onshoring or nearshoring) and diversifying their supplier base if costs continue to rise. In particular, nearshoring allows for faster response to changes in demand, better inventory management and shorter order fulfilment times.

Technology plays a major role in transforming the supply chain. Already, 30% of retailers use AI to monitor their supply chains, and this figure is expected to rise to 41% within a year. What is more, 59% of retail managers expect a positive return on investment in AI solutions for logistics within the next 12 months. Automation and analytics help reduce rising costs in order fulfilment and transport.

How to manage margins and costs to strengthen financial resilience?

In a year where growth is the priority, demonstrating financial stability will be critical to achieving profitability in line with ambitious targets. Almost all retailers surveyed (95%) expect costs to rise in 2026 (most often moderately), yet 82% still forecast an increase in margins. To offset higher expenses, retailers intend to, among other things:

• gradually increase prices (73%);
• shift their product range towards higher-margin items (72%);
• raise the threshold for free delivery (67%).

Among retailers anticipating cost increases, 76% say their companies are likely to adjust investment priorities, and 82% expect to shift capital allocation toward more profitable ventures.

This approach to margin management requires precision and discipline. 75% of companies focus on costs that are within their control, without wasting resources on external factors. And it works – 71% report a competitive advantage thanks to better control of expenses. It is essential to implement cost discipline in all areas – from product range and procurement to pricing. The use of tools such as dynamic pricing and data-driven promotions helps to maintain margins.

At the same time, diversifying revenue through higher-margin private labels and loyalty ecosystems, along with a drive for large-scale efficiency and automation, may be necessary to keep costs under control and support sustainable growth.

Summary

The years 2026 and beyond will be a period of testing companies’ adaptability in the retail industry. The evolution of consumer attitudes and the technological revolution requires retailers to be flexible and take a strategic approach to data. Success will come to companies that offer products with a good price-to-quality ratio and, at the same time, boldly implement innovations such as agent-based artificial intelligence and automated supply chains. Exorigo-Upos supports companies at every stage of this journey, providing solutions that are the foundation of modern retail.

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